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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on November 15, 2011

It all comes down to this race!  Only three points separate Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.  Can Stewart get the job done and pass Edwards in the last race to win the Championship?  Is it possible for them to be tied in points at the end of the race and have to go to a tie-breaker to see who wins the championship?  Stewart has more victories this season, so the edge should go to him.  Don’t plan on any of the drivers challenging Stewart or Edwards for position on the track.  No one wants to be the guy that wrecked them, destroying their chance at a title.  They will be the only ones racing each other hard in the final race.  With that in mind it should be no surprise who I’m picking as my chaser, and alternate chaser this week.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Carl Edwards
If past history at Homestead-Miami Speedway is any indicator, Carl Edwards should hang on to his slim points lead and win the championship.  Edwards has the best average finish at the track (5.7) and two career victories here as well.  In his seven career races Edwards has four top five and six top ten finishes.  His only finish outside of the top ten was his first race here in 2004 when he finished 14th.  I think it’s safe to say Edwards will get a top ten finish.  The question is, can Stewart do much more to put pressure on him?

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
If anyone can do it, Stewart can.  He, like Edwards, has two wins in Homestead-Miami.  Stewart also has three top five and six top ten finishes to go with the wins, in 12 career races.  His average finish of 12.4 isn’t quite as good as Edwards, but it’s not too shabby.  Given the fact that Stewart is trying to win his third NASCAR championship and drivers will be giving him plenty of room to run around the track, he should be a top ten finisher this week.  Again, the question is, will it be enough to win the title.  He may have to win the race, and lead the most laps to get it done; especially if Edwards is on his tail in 2nd or 3rd place.

A.J. Allmendinger
Believe it or not, A.J. Allmendinger owns the third best average finish at this track among active drivers.  In his three career races here Allmendinger is averaging an 8.7 place finish.  He’s finished 11th, 10th, and 5th in those races.  Allmendinger is 16th in points, only 3 away from Greg Biffle in 15th.  He will be pushing hard to pick up another spot in the standings and finish a very respectable 15th.  Also, Allmendinger has been one of the hottest drivers lately, averaging a 13th place finish over the last five races.  There’s no reason to believe he won’t contend for another top ten finish this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.
Truex Jr. has a top ten finish in the last three races, and four of the last five at Homestead-Miami.  He’s averaging an 11.7 place finish in his 6 race career at the track; good enough for sixth best among active drivers.  Just over 12% of you had Truex on your team last week when he finished 20th.  This looks to be a better track for Truex and he should contending for a top ten finish and get you more points this week.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
Burton finds himself down in 23rd place.  Way too low for a driver of his caliber.  He has turned it around a little over the past five races.  In that span he’s averaging an 11.7 place finish with two top five and three top ten finishes.  Burton has also had some success at Miami-Homestead in his career with four top five and five top ten finishes.  I’m sure Burton will be glad the 2011 season is over after the race, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be fighting for another quality run and keeping momentum for the 2012 season.

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