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Posts Tagged ‘AAA Texas 500’

Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on October 31, 2011

Tony Stewart started the chase strong with back-to-back wins.  Can he do it again?  Winning three races during the chase is very impressive, and as a result, he’s only eight points behind Carl Edwards for the lead.  Jimmie Johnson’s 2nd place finish is keeping him in the hunt, but definitely on the outside looking in right now.  It should be interesting in Texas this weekend.  Fourteen active drivers have won a race at the Texas Motor Speedway during their career with Carl Edwards’ three leading the way.  Nine of the past winners are current chasers.  It looks like there is no shortage of good drivers to pick for your team this week. 

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Matt Kenseth
Kenseth’s 9th place average finishing position at Texas is best among active drivers.  In 18 career races at the track he has 12 top ten and nine top five finishes along with two wins.  Last week in Martinsville wasn’t Kenseth’s race, finishing 31st, but look for him to rebound this weekend.  In his last nine races at Texas Kenseth has finished in the top ten eight times; a very impressive run that should continue this weekend.  Kenseth was on less than 4% of the teams last week.  Put him on your team this week and get points that everyone else is missing.

Alternate Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Kenseth has the best average finish at Texas, and Denny Hamlin has the second best average finish at 9.3.  Hamlin won both races here in 2010 so it’s obvious he’s comfortable with the track and knows he can get the job done.  He may be out of contention for the championship, sitting 11th in points, but that doesn’t mean he’s giving up on winning races.  Hamlin has 8 top ten and 5 top five finishes in his 12 race career at Texas so look for him to be battling for the victory when the laps are winding down.

Clint Bowyer
Bower is a solid driver that is having a pretty decent year.  He’s 13th in points and won at Talladega a couple weeks ago.  This weekend should be another solid run for Bower.  He’s averaging a 13.4 place finish at Texas and has three top five and six top ten finishes at the track in 11 career races.  Bowyer is no secret to those of you playing Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR; he was on close to 50% of the teams last week.

Greg Biffle
Biffle has had some rough times and some good times in Texas.  In his first nine races at the track he only finished in the top ten twice and his average finish was a horrible 26.1.  Compare that to the last six times he’s been at the track and you’ll see what I’m talking about.  Since the second race at the track in 2008 Biffle has had six consecutive top ten finishes, averaging a 5.8 place finish.  I think it’s safe to say Biffle has a better feel for Texas and should be among the leaders this weekend.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
As bad of a season that Jeff Burton has had, there have been signs of life over the last couple races.  Two weeks ago in Talladega he finished 2nd and last week in Martinsville he was able to bring home a 6th place finish.  Those were only his 2nd and 3rd top ten finishes of the season.  Pretty hard to believe Burton doesn’t have more.  Hopefully this weekend in Texas he’ll be able to get his 4th top ten finish of the season.  He does have nine top ten and three top five finishes at the track in his career, as well as two wins.  It has been a bad year for Burton, but don’t count him out of the remaining three races just yet.

 

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Driver Recommendations for2010 AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on November 1, 2010

Now the chase is getting really good with only 38 points separating Jimmie Johnson from third place Kevin Harvick.  Look for the rest of the field to give Jimmie, Denny, and Kevin plenty of room to race as no one wants to be the guy that wrecks them and ruins their chance to win the championship.  With that in mind, it may be wise to have one of them on your team this week.  Texas is a pretty wide track and give the drivers room to avoid trouble, so they should be able to make it through to the end with their cars in one piece.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
I’m picking Jimmie for two reasons.  1; he has a 10.1 place average finish at Texas and 2; he has the best average finish over the last five races (4th place).  Oh, and the fact that he’s won four consecutive championships helps a bit too.  I’m sure some people get sick of hearing the great stats that Jimmie have, but let’s face it; the guy is awesome at almost every track.  I guess that’s why he’s one of the greatest ever.

Alternate Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Denny has the best average finish at Texas (9.6) and the third best average finish over the last five races this season (6.8).  He has a win, four top five and seven top ten finishes at Texas in 10 career races.  He’s more than a solid driver.  He’s learning how to win, and this could be the season that he learns how to knock off one of the all-time greats and win the championship.

Mark Martin
The old man has been in all 19 races at Texas and won one with six top five and 11 top ten finishes.  His average finish of 12.8 is good enough for 4th best among active drivers.  Mark has also been really good over the last five races of the chase with an average finish of 9.4.  Mark is doing well and looks to be in a groove and should get you a solid top ten finish this weekend.

Ryan Newman
There are not many drivers outside of the chasers with a good record at Texas.  Ryan’s numbers aren’t great, but there about as good as anyone’s who isn’t in the chase.   Ryan has a win and three top five finishes at Texas in his 14 race career at the track.  His average finish of 21.6 isn’t overly impressive, but looking at the average finishes of other drivers, it’s not too bad.  He’s experienced and knows how to win, so why not have him on your team this weekend?

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.
I was surprised to see how well Martin has done in Texas after looking at his stats.  He’s raced here 10 times with five top ten and one top five finish averaging a 13. Place finish.  He’s finished in the top ten in two of the last four races here.  He’s definitely not an automatic pick to finish in the top ten, but a solid driver that should get you some good points this weekend.

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