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Posts Tagged ‘NASCAR Predictions’

Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on November 15, 2011

It all comes down to this race!  Only three points separate Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.  Can Stewart get the job done and pass Edwards in the last race to win the Championship?  Is it possible for them to be tied in points at the end of the race and have to go to a tie-breaker to see who wins the championship?  Stewart has more victories this season, so the edge should go to him.  Don’t plan on any of the drivers challenging Stewart or Edwards for position on the track.  No one wants to be the guy that wrecked them, destroying their chance at a title.  They will be the only ones racing each other hard in the final race.  With that in mind it should be no surprise who I’m picking as my chaser, and alternate chaser this week.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Carl Edwards
If past history at Homestead-Miami Speedway is any indicator, Carl Edwards should hang on to his slim points lead and win the championship.  Edwards has the best average finish at the track (5.7) and two career victories here as well.  In his seven career races Edwards has four top five and six top ten finishes.  His only finish outside of the top ten was his first race here in 2004 when he finished 14th.  I think it’s safe to say Edwards will get a top ten finish.  The question is, can Stewart do much more to put pressure on him?

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
If anyone can do it, Stewart can.  He, like Edwards, has two wins in Homestead-Miami.  Stewart also has three top five and six top ten finishes to go with the wins, in 12 career races.  His average finish of 12.4 isn’t quite as good as Edwards, but it’s not too shabby.  Given the fact that Stewart is trying to win his third NASCAR championship and drivers will be giving him plenty of room to run around the track, he should be a top ten finisher this week.  Again, the question is, will it be enough to win the title.  He may have to win the race, and lead the most laps to get it done; especially if Edwards is on his tail in 2nd or 3rd place.

A.J. Allmendinger
Believe it or not, A.J. Allmendinger owns the third best average finish at this track among active drivers.  In his three career races here Allmendinger is averaging an 8.7 place finish.  He’s finished 11th, 10th, and 5th in those races.  Allmendinger is 16th in points, only 3 away from Greg Biffle in 15th.  He will be pushing hard to pick up another spot in the standings and finish a very respectable 15th.  Also, Allmendinger has been one of the hottest drivers lately, averaging a 13th place finish over the last five races.  There’s no reason to believe he won’t contend for another top ten finish this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.
Truex Jr. has a top ten finish in the last three races, and four of the last five at Homestead-Miami.  He’s averaging an 11.7 place finish in his 6 race career at the track; good enough for sixth best among active drivers.  Just over 12% of you had Truex on your team last week when he finished 20th.  This looks to be a better track for Truex and he should contending for a top ten finish and get you more points this week.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
Burton finds himself down in 23rd place.  Way too low for a driver of his caliber.  He has turned it around a little over the past five races.  In that span he’s averaging an 11.7 place finish with two top five and three top ten finishes.  Burton has also had some success at Miami-Homestead in his career with four top five and five top ten finishes.  I’m sure Burton will be glad the 2011 season is over after the race, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be fighting for another quality run and keeping momentum for the 2012 season.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Kobalt Tools 500 at Phoenix International Raceway

Posted by chadmusselman on November 7, 2011

Only two races left and three points separating Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.  Tony Stewart has really turned on the jets in the Chase amassing four wins in the eight races so far.  This should be one of the most exciting finishes to the season ever!  I have to give NASCAR kudos for the change in the point system and making every race of the season count for the championship.  There won’t be anyone wrapping up the title a race or two before the end of the season anymore.

The next to last race is in Phoenix, a relatively flat 1 mile tri-oval.  Ten of the chasers have won here in the past and only two regular drivers not in the chase have won a race here.  The main theme for picking drivers this week will be who’s been hot recently.  Most of the picks this week have a high average finish over the last five races.

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
Okay, so Jimmie Johnson hasn’t exactly torn it up over the last five races, but dog-gone it, he’s really awesome at Phoenix.  He leads all active drivers with four wins here, and also has 11 top five and 14 top ten finishes in only 16 career races.  That’s right; Johnson has only finished outside of the top ten twice in his career at Phoenix.  He won’t win his 6th consecutive title, but he very well can win the race this weekend.

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
It’s harder to get hotter than Stewart is right now.  He has won two in a row and finished in the top ten in four straight.  Stewart is only three points out of the lead and charging hard.  He’s going to be very focused and determined to get ahead of Carl Edwards before the final race in Homestead.  And, don’t forget that Stewart has won here before, collecting 7 top five and 10 top ten finishes along the way.  In 19 career races you may not think that’s very impressive, but I don’t know how you can go against the run Stewart is on right now.  He was on less than 10% of the fantasy teams last week, so pick him up this week and get those points you missed.

Kasey Kahne
Kahne has averaged an 8th place finish over the last five races, good enough for 3rd best.  He’s really doing a good job of building confidence and proving that Rick Hendrick is getting a quality driver for the 2012 season.  In 14 career races at Phoenix Kahne has only finished in the top ten four times with one top five, but you can throw those numbers out.  He’s on a great run right now with five top ten finishes in the last six races.  That should be good enough of a run to put Kahne on your team and ride the streak. 

Greg Biffle
Biffle is the 4th hottest driver over the last five races, averaging an 11.4 place finish.  His average finish at Phoenix isn’t too bad either (14.9).  Biffle has had success here in the past with four top five and five top ten finishes in 15 races.  He’s usually in the top fifteen at the track and should be again, and contending for another top ten finish. 

Dark Horse: Mark Martin
Okay, so Mark Martin hasn’t been hot of late, but I can’t ignore his record at Phoenix.  He’s averaging an 8.8 place finish with two wins, 12 top five, and 19 top ten finishes in 29 career races.  Only Jimmie Johnson has a better average finish than Martin.  I think Mart Martin has too much pride and is too good of a driver to mail in the final two races of the season.  He should show some life this weekend and have a shot at the top ten when the race is winding down.

 

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on October 31, 2011

Tony Stewart started the chase strong with back-to-back wins.  Can he do it again?  Winning three races during the chase is very impressive, and as a result, he’s only eight points behind Carl Edwards for the lead.  Jimmie Johnson’s 2nd place finish is keeping him in the hunt, but definitely on the outside looking in right now.  It should be interesting in Texas this weekend.  Fourteen active drivers have won a race at the Texas Motor Speedway during their career with Carl Edwards’ three leading the way.  Nine of the past winners are current chasers.  It looks like there is no shortage of good drivers to pick for your team this week. 

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Matt Kenseth
Kenseth’s 9th place average finishing position at Texas is best among active drivers.  In 18 career races at the track he has 12 top ten and nine top five finishes along with two wins.  Last week in Martinsville wasn’t Kenseth’s race, finishing 31st, but look for him to rebound this weekend.  In his last nine races at Texas Kenseth has finished in the top ten eight times; a very impressive run that should continue this weekend.  Kenseth was on less than 4% of the teams last week.  Put him on your team this week and get points that everyone else is missing.

Alternate Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Kenseth has the best average finish at Texas, and Denny Hamlin has the second best average finish at 9.3.  Hamlin won both races here in 2010 so it’s obvious he’s comfortable with the track and knows he can get the job done.  He may be out of contention for the championship, sitting 11th in points, but that doesn’t mean he’s giving up on winning races.  Hamlin has 8 top ten and 5 top five finishes in his 12 race career at Texas so look for him to be battling for the victory when the laps are winding down.

Clint Bowyer
Bower is a solid driver that is having a pretty decent year.  He’s 13th in points and won at Talladega a couple weeks ago.  This weekend should be another solid run for Bower.  He’s averaging a 13.4 place finish at Texas and has three top five and six top ten finishes at the track in 11 career races.  Bowyer is no secret to those of you playing Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR; he was on close to 50% of the teams last week.

Greg Biffle
Biffle has had some rough times and some good times in Texas.  In his first nine races at the track he only finished in the top ten twice and his average finish was a horrible 26.1.  Compare that to the last six times he’s been at the track and you’ll see what I’m talking about.  Since the second race at the track in 2008 Biffle has had six consecutive top ten finishes, averaging a 5.8 place finish.  I think it’s safe to say Biffle has a better feel for Texas and should be among the leaders this weekend.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
As bad of a season that Jeff Burton has had, there have been signs of life over the last couple races.  Two weeks ago in Talladega he finished 2nd and last week in Martinsville he was able to bring home a 6th place finish.  Those were only his 2nd and 3rd top ten finishes of the season.  Pretty hard to believe Burton doesn’t have more.  Hopefully this weekend in Texas he’ll be able to get his 4th top ten finish of the season.  He does have nine top ten and three top five finishes at the track in his career, as well as two wins.  It has been a bad year for Burton, but don’t count him out of the remaining three races just yet.

 

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Tums Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on October 24, 2011

Only four races left in the season and the top five in the standings are separated by only 26 points.  It looks like NASCAR will get their wish with the new points system and have several drivers with a shot at winning going into the final race at Homestead.  Unfortunately for Jimmie Johnson his 26th place finish last week may have been the nail in the coffin on his hopes of winning his sixth championship in a row.  That doesn’t mean he won’t run hard this weekend at Martinsville and try to make it interesting.

We all know Martinsville brings tight racing with lots of passing and action.  This will be another race that the chasers have to avoid trouble; even if it’s started by someone on the other side of the track.  It doesn’t take long for wrecks to happen and drivers to get their fenders banged up or cut a tire by running over debris.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
Johnson may not win his sixth title this season, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s the best driver at Martinsville.  Jeff Gordon has more wins (7) than Johnson (6), but Johnson has won his in only 19 races at the track.  Along with those six wins he has finished in the top five 13 times and top ten 17 times.  His average finish of 5.6 is also best among active drivers.  Is Johnson done, and not motivated to finish the season strong?  I don’t think so.  He should be pushing harder than ever to get another win in Martinsville.

Alternate Chaser: Jeff Gordon
If Jimmie Johnson is the best at Martinsville, then Jeff Gordon has to be second best.  His seven wins are most at the track, and his 7th place average finish is third best among active drivers.  In 37 races Gordon has 30 top ten and 24 top five finishes here.  It’s ridiculous really.  He only has four finishes outside of the top 15 at the track and only two outside of the top 25.  Even when he has a bad day it’s better than a lot of drivers on a good day.  He may not be able to win the title this year, but there is no doubt he can win the race this weekend.

Mark Martin
Martin has finished in the top ten in four of the last five races in Martinsville.  He’s sporting an average finish of 13th place over his 47 race career at the track.  Along with two wins, Martin also has 12 top five and 25 top ten finishes.  He hasn’t shown much in recent races finishing outside of the top ten in four of the last five this season, but Martin knows this track well.  He should contend for a top ten and improve his 19th place point standings.  He’s a better driver than what has been shown over the past month.

Clint Bowyer
Bowyer is coming off of his first win of the season and should be feeling good about himself.  He has finished in the top ten in three of the last four races and four of the last six this season.  Bowyer has had moderate success at Martinsville with a top five and six top ten finishes in 11 career races.  He’s 13th in points, and had he made the chase we’d be talking about him hanging with the big boys contending for the title.  Give Bowyer credit, he’s done well and looks like he will finish the season strong and hopefully hang on to 13th position.

Dark Horse: Joey Logano
Logano has only raced in Martinsville five times, but outside of his first race here when he finished 32nd, he’s always been in the top 13, which happens to be his average finish at the track.  He hasn’t had a top ten finish since way back at Watkins Glen, so Logano is past due.  This could be the race that he gets his 7th top ten of the season.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega Superspeedway

Posted by chadmusselman on October 17, 2011

When things started to liven up at the end of the race in Charlotte, Jimmie Johnson hit the wall hard.  That definitely hurt his chances of winning another title, but there is no way Johnson can be counted out yet.  Talladega is obviously a huge track with the drivers being bunched close together for most of the race.  We can expect more beating and banging on the cars, making it tough to predict who will make it through the race cleanly and go to victory circle.  Anyone can get caught up on someone else’s mess.  This could be the race that shakes up the standings and puts Keselowski and Stewart in a position to make a charge in the final four races, or it could be race that Edwards, Harvick, and Kenseth need to further separate themselves from the rest of the chasers.

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Kevin Harvick
Harvick is averaging a 7.2 place finish in the Chase races (2nd best) and averages a 14.3 place finish at Talladega (3rd best).  It seems like a good formula for him to have a good race next week.  In 21 career races at Talladega Harvick has 10 top ten and 6 top five finishes with 1 win.  Harvick is only 5 points behind Carl Edwards for the point lead and less than 1.5% of you had Harvick on your team last week.  This is the perfect chance to get him on your team and get some real points. 

Alternate Chaser: Kurt Busch
Kurt Bush hasn’t made a ton of noise in the chase, but is sitting 7th; only 25 points out of first place.  He has had a lot of success in Talladega over his career, averaging a 13.9 place finish (2nd best) with 6 top five and 13 top ten finishes in 21 career races.  With the unpredictable way races can take shape in Talladega, this could be the time for Busch to finish strong and move up in the standings to become a real contender for the title.  We know that he has what it takes to win the title.

Mark Martin
This weekend will be Mark Martin’s 48th race in Talladega.  He has had a great career at the track collecting 2 wins, 11 top five and 24 top ten finishes along the way.  Martin has cooled off a bit over the last four or five week dropping from 16th to 20th in the standings.  He’s due for a good finish and Talladega is a track that should suit his driving style and provide him with it.  Martin can stay in the middle of the pack and let the initial craziness settle down and be around to contend for a top ten at the end of the race.

Clint Bowyer
It looks like Clint Bowyer is starting to get the hang of Talladega.  In 11 career races he only has 5 top ten finishes, but he’s on a roll with three consecutive top ten finishes at the track.  In that stretch he has also finished in the top five twice with a win.  Hopefully this trend can continue for Bowyer and he’ll get another top five or ten finish this weekend.

Dark Horse: Joey Logano
Believe it or not, no one has a better average finish at Talladega then Joey Logano.  Logano has only raced here five times, but in those races he has finished in the top ten four times with two top five finishes.  He finished 12th last week, so maybe this can be the start of a good run for Logano to finish out the season.  He was on less than 10% of the fantasy teams last week, so pick him up and you should get good points this week.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on October 10, 2011

Look out Edwards and Harvick; Jimmie Johnson is on the move!  After his win in Kansas Johnson moved from 5th to 3rd place in the standings and is only 4 points out of first.  Never doubt the 48 team.  On the other side of the spectrum is Jeff Gordon.  For doing so well before the Chase, he has struggled a little of late.  His 34th place finish last week dropped him to 10th in the standings, 47 points out.  He now joins Earnhardt, Newman, and Hamlin as drivers that are essentially out of it.  The other eight chasers still have a legitimate chance at the title.  Eight place Kyle Bush is only 20 points out of first.

The 1.5 mile tri-oval of Charlotte is the next stop.  It’s obviously a great track that can provide some quality racing and exciting finishes.  There are a lot of drivers that have legitimate shots at winning and finishing in the top ten.  Let’s see who you should have on your team.  Don’t forget; the race is Saturday night this week!

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
No active driver has more wins in Charlotte than Johnson.  His six are one better than Jeff Gordon.  He’s also finished in the top ten 14 times in 20 career races at the track.  The Lowes team is starting to find its Chase groove and cranking out great performances.  Winning last week, and finishing 2nd the week before is only the beginning.  Johnson is in great position to win his sixth championship in a row.  When they start to run like this there isn’t much that can stop them.

Alternate Chaser: Carl Edwards
Well, Edwards is the points leader as well as the hottest driver on the circuit.  He’s averaging a 4.4 place finish over the last five races, and Edwards has seven consecutive top ten finishes, with five of those top five finishes.  The streak will have to end eventually, but not this race.  Edwards has 7 top ten finishes at Charlotte in 13 career races, and amazingly hasn’t finished in the top ten here since the Coca-Cola 600 in 2009.  That’s four consecutive races without a top ten finish in Charlotte.  That’s simply too long of a streak and it has to end this weekend.

Kasey Kahne
I was surprised to see how well Kasey Kahne has done at the Charlotte Motor Speedway throughout his career.  He’s averaging a 14.1 place finish in 15 races, along with 5 top five finishes and three wins.  He hasn’t finished in the top ten for three consecutive races at Charlotte, so like Edwards, I think Kahne is due.  He has finished 4th and 2nd in the last two weeks so maybe Kahne is starting to put it together late in the year and building momentum for his ride with Hendrick in 2012.  Either way, Kahne looks to be a solid driver to have on your team this week.

Joey Logano
Would you believe that Joey Logano has the best average finish (7.4) at the Charlotte Motor Speedway than any other active driver?  Sure, the sample size is smaller (5 races), but the fact is he does well here.  Logano has 2 top five and 4 top ten finishes in those five races.  It’s been a bad year, and he needs a couple good runs to wrap up the season, and this is a place that he could get it.  Logano was owned by less than 4% of the fantasy teams last week, so there is definitely a chance for you to pick him up and gain some points.

Dark Horse: David Reutimann
Another surprise for me when I was looking at the stats for Charlotte was David Reutimann.  He’s finished in the top ten here four of the last five races.  Reutimann hasn’t done much this season, but it’s obvious he has figured out Charlotte and it’s become one of his favorite tracks.  One of his two career victories came here back in the Coca-Cola 600 of 2009.  Reutimann was on less than 1.5% of the teams last week, so this is definitely an opportunity for you to pick up a driver almost no one else will have and gain points.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on September 26, 2011

Tony Stewart certainly knows when to kick it in high gear winning the opening two races of the chase.  Can he continue the hot streak when he hits Dover?  All of the chasers are pretty hot of late; the top ten drivers that have the best average finish over the past five races are all chasers.  They’re closing the door on the non-chasers and showing everyone how good they really are.

One chaser that needs to start cranking out top ten finishes is Jimmie Johnson.  His run of consecutive championships will be in serious jeopardy if he doesn’t get a top five or ten finish in Dover and climb a few positions in the standings.  Johnson is currently 10th, 29points out of first.  He has a lot of ground to make up, but if anyone can do it Jimmie can.  Johnson can’t be counted out until the season is over.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Carl Edwards
Carl Edwards is my recommended chaser this week for two reasons.  1. He has the best average finish at Dover among active drivers (7.6).  2. He is the 2nd hottest driver in NASCAR averaging a 5.6 place finish over the last 5 races.  Put those two stats together and it seems like an easy pick.  Edwards only has one win at the track but has 6 top five and 10 top ten finishes in 14 career races.  You know he’s a really good driver, and this week he should be able to get you a lot of points for your fantasy team.

Alternate Chaser: Brad Keselowski
You could put Brad Keselowski on your team for the simple fact that he’s the hottest driver NASCAR.  The kid has been amazing over the last 9 races.  Since Brickyard 400 (a span of 9 races) where he finished 9th, Keselowski has 8 top ten and 6 top five finishes with two wins.  His worst finish in that stretch is 12th!  I don’t know how long this run can last for Keselowski, but I wouldn’t bet against him until you know for sure it is over.

Greg Biffle
Biffle missed the chase, but had a strong run last weekend finishing 3rd.  Dover is a track that Biffle has performed well, averaging an 11.4 place finish in 18 career races.  Along with that he has also won here twice with 6 top five and 10 top ten finishes.   Biffle is still a quality driver that can earn you a lot of points.  He’s had some tough patches this season, but he did well last weekend and with his history at Dover it looks like Biffle could go on a mini hot streak and get you more points this week.

A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger was my pre-season pick to be the most surprising driver of 2012.  Although I think Brad Keselowsi took that honor, Allmendinger wasn’t too far off.  He’s currently 15th in points, only four away from 12th.  Allmendinger has shown consistent improvement over the past few years and is quietly becoming a good driver that can be counted on week in and week out to have good finishes.  He’s not flashy, but gets the job done.  Allmendinger has had recent success in Dover finishing 10th and 7th in two of the last four races at the track.  He should be able to contend for a top ten finish this weekend and get some points for your team.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
I think we all know that Jeff Burton is a way better driver than being 24th in points.  Last year at both Dover races Burton finished 2nd.  For his career he has a win, 8 top five and 15 top ten finishes at the track.  He’s better than what’s been shown this season and he should be good for your team this weekend.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Geico 400 at Chicagoland Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on September 12, 2011

Let the chase begin!  The field of chasers is set, and NASCAR will be kicking things off at the Chicagoland Speedway.  This is one of the newer 1.5 mile ovals on the circuit and can provide for some good racing.  Since NASCAR moved the Chicago race from the sweltering heat of mid-July to mid-September, the race will be on Sunday afternoon.

New chasers for 2011 are Dale Earnhardt Jr, Ryan Newman, and Brad Keselowski.  2010 chasers that didn’t make it are Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton.  It all starts at the Chicagoland Speedway.  This will make picking drivers a little tougher since you can only have one chaser.  Teams with Keselowski, Earnhardt, Newman, and Johnson aren’t possible any more.

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Tony Stewart
No one has more top ten finishes in Chicago than Tony Stewart.  He has eight of them, and he also has two wins with seven top five finishes.  His average finish of 9.5 is 3rd best among active drivers.  Each year it seems like Stewart gets a hot streak going and cranks out 2 or 3 wins in a 5 race span.  He hasn’t done that yet, but he does have three top ten finishes over the last four races.  Could this be the beginning of his hot streak?  Stewart does will in Chicago, so there no reason to believe he can’t win.

Alternate Chaser: Jeff Gordon
Stewart may have the most top ten finishes at Chicagoland Speedway, but no one has a better average finish at the track than Jeff Gordon (8.6).  Along with that he has 7 top ten and 6 top five finishes with one win.  Gordon has also been very hot lately, averaging a 5.2 place finish in the last five races of the season.  He’s peaking at the right time and looks to be in good shape entering the chase. 

Clint Bowyer
Bowyer wasn’t able to make the chase this season, but that should help out your fantasy team.  He has a good record at Chicago finishing in the top ten 4 times in 5 career races with one top five finish.  There’s no doubt Bowyer is disappointed he didn’t make the chase, and hopefully there’s no letdown and he drives motivated on Sunday and shows he can still race with the front of the pack.

A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger hasn’t been talked about a whole lot this season, but is quietly doing very well sitting 13th in points.  He has shown improvement each season, and continues to do so.  Although he doesn’t have a top ten finish in Chicago, Allmendinger is averaging a 13.3 place finish with 13th, 13th, and 14th place finishes in his three career races.  He may not get a win or even top five this weekend, but Allmendinger should contend for a top ten and probably finish in the top 15.

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers
It has been a very bad year for Vickers sitting way down in 27th.  Even with him coming back from his medical condition last year I don’t think Vickers expected it to be such a rough season.  There may be some good news this weekend since Chicagoland is a track that Vickers has historically performed well.  He’s averaging an 8.8 place finish here, and has three top ten and one top five finish at the track.  Hopefully he can feel comfortable with the track and race with the lead pack this weekend.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Wonderful Pistachios 400 at Richmond International Raceway

Posted by chadmusselman on September 7, 2011

This is it, the last race before the chase.  It looks like the top 12 will be in the chase this year since Keselowski and Hamlin are the only ones outside the top ten (and inside the top twenty) with wins.  As for fantasy standings, it is still a close one in many leagues.  In league Johnson only 1 point separates 10th from 11th place, and only 5 points separate 10th from 13th.  Other leagues are similar with less than 10 points separating 10th place from 11th or 12th.  There could be a lot of movement in the top 15 of each league.  Good luck!

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Kyle Busch
There are five active drivers with 3 wins at Richmond, and Kyle Busch is one of them.  In his 13 career races at the track Busch has 11 top five finishes to go with those wins.  In the two races he didn’t finish in the top five he was 15th and 20th.  It almost seems too much like a lock to have Busch on your team, but you have to like those numbers and the chances that he’ll finish in the top five again, and possibly win the race.

Alternate Chaser: Jeff Gordon
Gordon is getting it done lately, averaging a 5.8 place finish over the last five races.  He can also get it done in Richmond.  In his 37 career races Gordon has 23 top ten and 14 top five finishes with 2 wins.  His 3 wins this season is the most Gordon has had since he won 6 races in 2007.  It seems that some of his dominance from years ago is re-appearing and proving that he very well could win the elusive 5th title of his career.  Gordon is securely in the chase, but with another win he’ll get the additional bonus points, so look for him to drive for that win this weekend.

Brad Keselowski
We all know the run that Keselowski has been on recently, and it is nothing short of amazing.  57% of you had him on your team last week.  For the 43% of you that didn’t, I ask, why not?  You’re losing points to everyone else.  Keselowski hasn’t done very well at Richmond before in his career, with his best finish being 14th last season, but we all know that doesn’t matter right now.  With the string of great finishes he’s putting together Keselowski can win any race at any track.  Put him on your team!

Ryan Newman
Newman has the 5th best average finish at Richmond among active drivers (11.8) and also sports the 6th best average finish in the last 5 races this season (10.8).  Seems like a good combination for him to get a good finish this weekend.  Newman has won here before as well as finished in the top five 5 times and top ten 11 time in 19 career races.  Newman was easily the most owned driver last week being on close to 78% of the teams.  He’s doing well, so don’t take him off your team yet.

Dark Horse: Marcos Ambrose
Ambrose is definitely not an obvious pick for Richmond, but the road racer has done fairly well here.  In only 5 races at the track he does have one top five and two top ten finishes.  Over the past five weeks Ambrose has finished 20th, 1st, 27th, 10th, and 21st.  See the pattern?  I think it’s time for him to finish in the top ten again this weekend.

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 AdvoCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on August 29, 2011

Remember back when the Labor Day race was for the Winston No Bull, Million Dollar bonus?  Those were some good races, watching Jeff Gordon go door to door with Jeff Burton to win the Million dollar bonus.  There is nothing like that now, but Atlanta is the fastest track on the circuit and should provide for exciting racing.  With only a few races left until the chase Brad Keselowski is definitely moving up, and all of the other drivers better take note.  The kid has been amazing of late.  It would be cool if he carry the momentum into the chase and make it a little more interesting.

This Week’s Recommendations:  

Chaser: Jeff Gordon
Gordon does well at every track and Atlanta is no exception, but he hasn’t won here since 2003, although he’s collected a lot of top ten and top five finishes.  Over his career Gordon has won four times at Atlanta along with 14 top five and 23 top ten finishes.  His average finish of 12.5 is third best among active drivers at the track.  Add the fact that Gordon is averaging a 6th place finish over the last five races this season and he seems to be a pretty safe pick for this weekend.

Alternate Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
No one has a better average finish at Atlanta than Jimmie Johnson (10.4).  He’s finished in the top ten 12 times, top five 10 times and has won 3 times.  We all know Jimmie is awesome, and Atlanta is no exception.  He is 2nd in points and is turning up the heat averaging a 7.8 place finish over the last five races.  He’ll be poised to make a run at championship number 6.  Surprisingly only 13% of you had Jimmie on your team last week.  We’ll see if that number goes up this week.

Brad Keselowski
Is the run that Brad Keselowsi on sick or what?  He’s now 11th in points, coming up from 23rd five races ago.  It is simply amazing.  Who would have guessed?  It’s pretty obvious you are noticing as well.  Over 47% of the teams in Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR had Brad on their team last week.  As for his record in Atlanta, that’s another story.  Keselowski has only raced here twice finishing 36th & 25th.  That shouldn’t matter this week though.  With the streak he’s on Keselowski can win any race at any track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Let’s be honest about this pick.  Earnhardt Jr. is a safe pick in Atlanta and should help your team collect points.  Jr. is averaging a 12.5 place finish at the track with 8 top five and 10 top ten finishes with a win.  Earnhardt has also done well over the past five races, averaging a 14th place finish.  Again, not great by any means, but good, and a points getter.

Dark Horse: Marcos Ambrose
It was slim pickings for the dark horse this week.  There weren’t many drivers lower than 15th in the standings that have performed even remotely well in Atlanta.  Ambrose’s average finish of 22.2 isn’t all that good, but in the two races here last year Ambrose finished 10th & 11th, so it seems he may have figured the track out a bit and will challenge again for a top ten finish.  Ambrose was on less than 5% of the teams last week, so he could be someone you pick to gain some points.

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