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Posts Tagged ‘Texas Motor Speedway’

Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on October 31, 2011

Tony Stewart started the chase strong with back-to-back wins.  Can he do it again?  Winning three races during the chase is very impressive, and as a result, he’s only eight points behind Carl Edwards for the lead.  Jimmie Johnson’s 2nd place finish is keeping him in the hunt, but definitely on the outside looking in right now.  It should be interesting in Texas this weekend.  Fourteen active drivers have won a race at the Texas Motor Speedway during their career with Carl Edwards’ three leading the way.  Nine of the past winners are current chasers.  It looks like there is no shortage of good drivers to pick for your team this week. 

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Matt Kenseth
Kenseth’s 9th place average finishing position at Texas is best among active drivers.  In 18 career races at the track he has 12 top ten and nine top five finishes along with two wins.  Last week in Martinsville wasn’t Kenseth’s race, finishing 31st, but look for him to rebound this weekend.  In his last nine races at Texas Kenseth has finished in the top ten eight times; a very impressive run that should continue this weekend.  Kenseth was on less than 4% of the teams last week.  Put him on your team this week and get points that everyone else is missing.

Alternate Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Kenseth has the best average finish at Texas, and Denny Hamlin has the second best average finish at 9.3.  Hamlin won both races here in 2010 so it’s obvious he’s comfortable with the track and knows he can get the job done.  He may be out of contention for the championship, sitting 11th in points, but that doesn’t mean he’s giving up on winning races.  Hamlin has 8 top ten and 5 top five finishes in his 12 race career at Texas so look for him to be battling for the victory when the laps are winding down.

Clint Bowyer
Bower is a solid driver that is having a pretty decent year.  He’s 13th in points and won at Talladega a couple weeks ago.  This weekend should be another solid run for Bower.  He’s averaging a 13.4 place finish at Texas and has three top five and six top ten finishes at the track in 11 career races.  Bowyer is no secret to those of you playing Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR; he was on close to 50% of the teams last week.

Greg Biffle
Biffle has had some rough times and some good times in Texas.  In his first nine races at the track he only finished in the top ten twice and his average finish was a horrible 26.1.  Compare that to the last six times he’s been at the track and you’ll see what I’m talking about.  Since the second race at the track in 2008 Biffle has had six consecutive top ten finishes, averaging a 5.8 place finish.  I think it’s safe to say Biffle has a better feel for Texas and should be among the leaders this weekend.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
As bad of a season that Jeff Burton has had, there have been signs of life over the last couple races.  Two weeks ago in Talladega he finished 2nd and last week in Martinsville he was able to bring home a 6th place finish.  Those were only his 2nd and 3rd top ten finishes of the season.  Pretty hard to believe Burton doesn’t have more.  Hopefully this weekend in Texas he’ll be able to get his 4th top ten finish of the season.  He does have nine top ten and three top five finishes at the track in his career, as well as two wins.  It has been a bad year for Burton, but don’t count him out of the remaining three races just yet.

 

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Fantasy NASCAR Recommendations for 2011 Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on April 4, 2011

The Texas Motor Speedway in Ft. Worth, TX is the venue for the 7th race of the season.  When this track was originally built in 1996 it had a two-track/dual banking system; one with 24 degree banking for NASCAR and an inner track with 8 degrees of banking for Indy Cars.  That has since been removed and the track is more traditional with one consistent banking.  This is also a track where the 2010 chasers perform well.  Seven of the chasers are in the top ten for best average finish and nine of them have won at least one race here.

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Matt Kenseth
Kenseth has the second best average finish at Texas (9.5) among active drivers, and he has the third best average finish over the past 5 races this season.  Put those two factors together and you get my top pick for winning the race this weekend.  Kenseth has a win with 8 top five and 11 top ten finishes at the track in 17 career races.  Take Denny and Jimmie off your Fantasy NASCAR team this week and insert Kenseth.

Alternate Chaser: Kevin Harvick
Wow, has Harvick come on strong at the end of the last couple races or what!  With those two wins he is the hottest driver on the circuit, averaging a 5.8 place finish in the last five races.  He’s also done very well at the Texas Motor Speedway averaging a 12.4 place finish with one win, 7 top five and 12 top ten finishes in 20 races.  If you want a hot driver on your team, Harvick is your guy; there’s no one hotter.

Mark Martin
Martin has the longest active streak of top ten finishes in Texas with four.  He has finished 6th, 4th, 6th, & 3rd in those races.  After last week’s strong run Martin has climbed back into the top ten in the standings.  This should be another good run for Martin and help him continue his climb up the standings.  He knows how to drive and may not always be able to win every race, but definitely is capable of finishing in the top ten in every race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is up to 8th in the point standings?  Is it 2006 again?  I’ll give Earhnardt credit; he’s having a pretty good season so far.  He’s been up in the lead pack most of the time contending for the top 5 and winning the race.  Texas Motor Speedway is also a track that he’s won at before so this could be the weekend that he breaks his long winless streak.  Earnhardt has also finished in the top five 3 times and top ten 8 times in 17 career races.

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.
Truex finds himself down to 17th in points after a bad race in Martinsville.  He has done OK at Texas though with 5 top ten finishes in 11 career races.  Truex was a chaser in 2007, so he is capable of going on a good run and collecting top ten finishes.  If you want someone different on your team that others won’t have, Martin Truex Jr. could be your guy.

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Driver Recommendations for2010 AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on November 1, 2010

Now the chase is getting really good with only 38 points separating Jimmie Johnson from third place Kevin Harvick.  Look for the rest of the field to give Jimmie, Denny, and Kevin plenty of room to race as no one wants to be the guy that wrecks them and ruins their chance to win the championship.  With that in mind, it may be wise to have one of them on your team this week.  Texas is a pretty wide track and give the drivers room to avoid trouble, so they should be able to make it through to the end with their cars in one piece.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
I’m picking Jimmie for two reasons.  1; he has a 10.1 place average finish at Texas and 2; he has the best average finish over the last five races (4th place).  Oh, and the fact that he’s won four consecutive championships helps a bit too.  I’m sure some people get sick of hearing the great stats that Jimmie have, but let’s face it; the guy is awesome at almost every track.  I guess that’s why he’s one of the greatest ever.

Alternate Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Denny has the best average finish at Texas (9.6) and the third best average finish over the last five races this season (6.8).  He has a win, four top five and seven top ten finishes at Texas in 10 career races.  He’s more than a solid driver.  He’s learning how to win, and this could be the season that he learns how to knock off one of the all-time greats and win the championship.

Mark Martin
The old man has been in all 19 races at Texas and won one with six top five and 11 top ten finishes.  His average finish of 12.8 is good enough for 4th best among active drivers.  Mark has also been really good over the last five races of the chase with an average finish of 9.4.  Mark is doing well and looks to be in a groove and should get you a solid top ten finish this weekend.

Ryan Newman
There are not many drivers outside of the chasers with a good record at Texas.  Ryan’s numbers aren’t great, but there about as good as anyone’s who isn’t in the chase.   Ryan has a win and three top five finishes at Texas in his 14 race career at the track.  His average finish of 21.6 isn’t overly impressive, but looking at the average finishes of other drivers, it’s not too bad.  He’s experienced and knows how to win, so why not have him on your team this weekend?

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.
I was surprised to see how well Martin has done in Texas after looking at his stats.  He’s raced here 10 times with five top ten and one top five finish averaging a 13. Place finish.  He’s finished in the top ten in two of the last four races here.  He’s definitely not an automatic pick to finish in the top ten, but a solid driver that should get you some good points this weekend.

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Driver Recommendations for the 2010 Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Posted by chadmusselman on April 13, 2010

Many drivers have fared well at Texas.  There are 10 drivers with an average finishing position better than 15th.  Five of them were chasers last year, so you should have no problems finding good drivers to put on your teams this week.  There are also 14 active drivers that have won in Texas.  Something else to consider this weekend is that there are 6 chasers in the top ten for best average finish over the past 5 races this season.  No one better than Jimmie Johnson, and his 5.2 place average finish.

Want to look at these stats yourself?  You can on Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR on the Track Stats page.

This week’s recommendations:

Chaser: Denny Hamlin
Denny has the second best average finish at the track with a 10.6 and 6 top tens in his 9 career races at the track.  After last week’s performance he fell to 18th in points, but don’t count him out just yet.  Denny is a very good driver and has too much skill and pride to be down in the pack for long.  Texas is a track that he can start his climb into the top 12.

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
Are you shocked I didn’t pick Jimmie again this week?  I know Jimmie is red hot, but he has to have an off week eventually, and I think it could be at Texas.  That’s why I picked Tony as the alternate chaser.  He has a win here, 4 top fives, 10 top tens, and an average finish of 12.2 at the track, good enough for 4th best.  He has also been pretty hot himself over the last five races compiling an average finish of 14.2, 8th best in NASCAR.  Tony knows how to get it done, and will start to pick up the pace.

Matt Kenseth
Matt is an easy choice for the first non-chaser.  He has the best average finish at the track (9.3), the 2nd hottest driver over the last 5 races (7.2 average finish) and is only 36 points behind Jimmie Johnson for the points lead.  I think this is the week that he passes Jimmie and takes the points lead.  He also has 6 consecutive top ten finishes in Texas.  He should definitely be on your team.

Clint Bowyer
Clint edged out Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton for this spot.  His 12.8 place average finish at the track plus his strong runs the last couple weeks gave him the edge.  He’s also managed to get three top ten finishes in the last four races at the track, so he has some recent success as well.

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.
Martin does have four top ten finishes in 9 career races at Texas and a 14.4 average finish in those races.  He’s had a difficult year so far, sitting 19th in points, but maybe he can start a string of 3 or 4 top 10 or 15 finishes and get up to about 15th or 14th in points and start contending to make the chase again.  This could be the weekend for him to begin that little run.

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Season Review after 8 Races

Posted by chadmusselman on April 22, 2008

Gripes about the Schedule
We’re only 8 races into the season, and the Sprint Cup Series has already taken 2 weeks off. They only have three more races before their next non-points weekend (May 17th), and then they have eight straight races without a week off (May 25th – July 12th). After their week off on July 20th they don’t take a break the rest of the season, meaning they race every weekend from July 27th until November 16th.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to space out the weeks off? At a minimum there should be a week off between the 26th and 27th race to give the teams a chance to catch their breath and prepare for the “Chase”. This is definitely something NASCAR should look into more closely and get smarter with.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Well, so far this season Dale Jr. is looking pretty good. If there were a Most Improved Driver award, I’d have to give it to Jr. for his performance so far this season. Last year at this time he was 15th in points. He now finds himself in 3rd, with 6 top-10 and 3 top-5 finishes.

In the season preview I said he needs to perform like an elite driver and show he’s ready to race like a champion. He’s done a good job of that so far. He hasn’t won a race yet, but he should break his two year drought soon. He’s been close, but hasn’t been able to get a W. If he wants to stay atop the list of serious contenders he’ll need to get more than one win this season, which he could easily do after the first one comes. If it doesn’t happen this season and/or next season he’ll be in danger of becoming “Dale Earnhardt’s son”. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s not what a champion would be called.

Attendance
Attendance has been a mixed bag so far this year. The races held in “destination” towns, like Las Vegas, have fared pretty good and have either sold out, or came close to it. Other races, like Martinsville, struggled to fill the seats. The race promoters are learning that they just can’t say they have NASCAR and sell $100 tickets anymore. They need to offer more to the fans. People want more reasons to visit a town. Gas prices no doubt have an effect on attendance. NASCAR fans like to have fun, and bring their big, gas guzzling, RVs to the races and party for 3 days and nights before the races. Now that gas is up to $3.60 or more per gallon it’s costing people hundreds of dollars to get to their favorite tracks, which few can afford. Hopefully some better promotions and add-on attractions to compliment the race will be more of the norm in the future to help bring fans back to the tracks. And of course, hopefully the economy gets better so more people can afford the race experience. I know from first hand experience that it’s a blast. It’s hard to beat the atmosphere of NASCAR weekend at a track.

Ratings
Ratings for NASCAR started out great for the first 4 races.
· Daytona drew slightly more viewers (175,000 more) than last year, although not as many as 2006.
· The rain delay coverage of California on Sunday night drew 10.9 Million viewers. That either says NASCAR could be real popular in Sunday night prime time or that there is absolutely nothing on Sunday nights. I’ll let you decide.
· The viewership of Las Vegas was way up. 12.4 Million people watched the race, which is 1.4 Million more than last year.
· Atlanta drew a 5.6 rating, which equates to 9.8 Million viewers; 700,000 more than last year.
· After that, the ratings dropped. Bristol, Martinsville, and Texas all had worse rating than last year. Phoenix matched its ratings from last year.
Why the drop off? My guess is boring races. In the first four races there was an average of 30 lead changes, meaning there was quite a bit of side-by-side racing. In the last four races there was an average of only 15.8 lead changes. Not much side-by-side racing, and one driver dominated most of those races, making them almost unwatchable.

Let’s hope the teams figure out this new car soon so we can get back to watching some good racing.

More notes and observations are on the way, so keep an eye out. Until then, leave a comment and give everyone your opinion.

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